Today's number is... 0

Typically, sentiment matters most at extremes, and I like to use it as a contrarian indicator. The way I learnt it was to beware of the crowd when the crowd is too one‐sided.

Currently, we are not at extreme levels. However, what caught my attention this week is that the Bull-Bear spread from the American Association of Individual Investors (AAII) has fallen below 0, while the S&P 500 has reached all-time highs.

Here’s the chart:

Today's number is... 20%

What happens after a 20% or more up year in the S&P 500?

With only 19 trading days remaining in the year, the S&P 500 has increased by 26.8%. So, it seems that 2024 could finish with a gain of 20% or more.

Here is a table with all of the 20% or more up years, along with the following year's returns:

Today's number is... 12

We have entered December, the 12th month of the year, which happens to be my favorite month! It's summer here in Australia, meaning the days are warm and long. This gives me plenty of time to play golf in the afternoon… and let's not forget that Santa comes to town!

More importantly, stocks tend to perform well in December.

Here’s the chart:

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Today's number is... 535

“It’s a bull market, you know.” - @OptionsSean

This bull market has been ongoing for 535 trading days to date.

Here is a bar chart displaying all S&P 500 bull markets since 1950:

Today's number is... 387

As we approach the final month of 2024, we have seen an impressive number of stocks perform well, with 387 stocks showing positive returns year-to-date so far.

Here’s the chart:

Today's number is... 22.8%

Yesterday, the S&P 500 reached another all-time high. 

So far in 2024, the index has spent 22.8% of its trading days at record highs.

This is the kind of data we expect to see in a bull market!

Here’s the chart:

(right-click and open image in new tab to zoom in)

Today's number is... six

With only a few days left in November, let’s dive into some S&P 500 December seasonality. 

When looking back over the last six elections, December has shown a positive return. Will this trend continue in 2024?

Here’s the chart:

(right-click and open image in new tab to zoom in)

Today's number is... 0.8

The bears have fumbled the ball once again.

The most recent flare-up of new lows we experienced from the other week has already disappeared, and it appears that they are retreating into hibernation once again, as only 0.8% of S&P 500 stocks are at 1-month lows.

Here’s the chart:

(right-click and open image in new tab to zoom in)

Today's number is... 11

All 11 S&P 500 sectors are back in an uptrend.

I define an uptrend as when the 50-day moving average is above the 200-day moving average. 

It's a simple and straightforward approach.

Here’s the chart:

(right-click and open image in new tab to zoom in)

Let's break down what the chart shows:

Today's number is... 17

The BofA US High Yield Option-Adjusted Spread is at a 17-year low, a level not seen since before the GFC market crash.

Here’s the chart:

(right-click and open image in new tab to zoom in)

Today's number is... 21

Our US dollar Advance-Decline line just closed at 21-year highs.

Here’s the chart:

(right-click and open image in new tab to zoom in)

Let's break down what it shows:

Today's number is... 16

On Friday, we saw the S&P 500 closed down 1.3%. This marks the 16th time this year that the index has declined by 1% or more in a single day.

Here's the data:

(right-click and open image in new tab to zoom in)

Let's break down what it shows: