The relative ratio of the World Ex-US index versus the S&P 500 has made a 10-month high.
Here’s the chart:
Let's break down what the chart shows:
The black line shows the relative ratio of World Ex-US (VEU) versus the S&P 500 Index (SPY).
The Takeaway: While the focus in the US is on Trump and his tariffs, the rest of the world is moving higher!
The relative ratio of the World Ex-US index vs the S&P 500 has broken out and is reaching 10-month highs.
Last month, I shared a note outlining the key changes I observed in the ratio between the World Ex-US index vs the S&P 500. At that time, there wasn't enough evidence to confirm a change in trend.
My sentiment composite hits a fresh 16-month high.
Here’s the chart:
Let's break down what the chart shows:
The black line in the top panel represents the price of the S&P 500 index.
The black line in the bottom panel represents my sentiment composite, which includes six different sentiment data points: AAII Bull Bear Spread, II Bull Bear Spread, NAAIM, CBOE Volatility Index, Equity Put Call Ratio 5-Day, and Put Call Ratio 10-Day.
The Takeaway: We are currently seeing more bears than bulls enter the market, as my sentiment composite has reached a new 16-month high. It's remarkable how price action can influence sentiment. Just six months ago, we were experiencing optimism, but now the environment for investors has turned much more pessimistic.
While I acknowledge that this sentiment composite is not perfect, it does provide a useful perspective on what investors are thinking at the moment.
The way I use sentiment is to determine whether it acts as a potential tailwind...
More than 50% of stocks listed on the NYSE reached 52-week lows last week.
Here’s the chart:
Let's break down what the chart shows:
The black line in the top panel is the S&P 500 index price.
The red lines in the bottom panelshow the percentage of NYSE stocks making 52-Week New Lows.
The Takeaway: The stock market can only decline with an expansion in the new lows list, it's simple math… and you know what… The number of stocks making new lows expanded to its fourth-highest level over the past 17 years.
That's expansion!
No two ways about it…
Last week, among the 2,862 stocks listed on the NYSE, 1,475 made new 52-week lows…
That's over half of the stocks that are listed on the NYSE exchange!
These are not levels you see during a bull market.
Moving forward from here, the Bulls must first stop stocks from declining. They have been trying to put something together, but have yet to show any type of back-to-back follow-through just yet.
