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Walmart: Watch for Rising Multiples

February 11, 2025

Walmart shares are up more than 80% in the last year despite single-digit revenue and earnings growth. Time to take gains on the World’s Largest Retailer?

I’ve been long shares of Walmart for the last 5 years. First the good news:

 

WMT is at all-time highs, having just ripped through Big Round Number resistance at $100 and forming one of those giddily unsustainable Upward to the Right charts you don’t see much in 65 year old retailers growing revenue at a single-digit rate.

Which is related to the bad-news. Walmart has rarely, if ever been this expensive by almost any measure. In the last 5 years Walmart shares are up 162%. In that same time frame revenue is up 26% and operating income has grown 22%. The latter numbers are surprising if not shockingly anemic.